One of the first questions that arises when starting to relate to the game world has to do with odds. There are three types of odds (decimal, fractional and American), but the explanation focuses on the first type, as they are the most widely used and universally recognized.
The odds estimate the probability that is given to a particular result related to an event. Subsequently, in case of a positive outcome, it will serve to multiply the gain obtained from this success. For example, if the chosen odds are 2.00 it means that the bookmaker pays 2 euros for every euro wagered. So, if you bet 10 euros, the win will be 20 euros, with a gain of 10 euros.
How to calculate it
Betting sites have conducted extensive studies to assign the correct odds for each event. For example, for a football match, each company has professionals dedicated to collecting all types of ante-match information (injured, disqualified, training, statistics, etc.). In this way they are best prepared to determine the odds.
To find out what is the probability that the bookmaker assigns to each result, the following formula must be performed: 100 / odds. Then, imagining a match between Juventus and Crotone, if the appropriate odds for Juventus are 1.22, it means that for the operator, the Juventus team has a 81.96% chance of winning the match. This is called implicit probability.
In this sense, experts say that you must bet only when you consider that the real possibilities are higher than those established by the bookmakers in relation to this formula.
Odds and probabilities
The likelihood of making up any odds serves to help them understand how traders get their profits. The equation is very simple and, following the football match, you simply need to calculate the percentages of the three alternatives available and add them. We find that it always exceeds 100% and right there is the profit for the company.
To realize the above explanation an example, imagine that Milan visit Inter in the Milan Derby and that the odds are as follows: 3.50 for the Rossoneri victory, 3.00 for a draw and 2.25 for the Nerazzurri victory. To the formula described above, odds would lead respectively to 28.57%, 33.33% and 44.44%. The sum of these three percentages results in 106.34% and is the surplus (6.34% in this case) that will determine the gain for the operator, the margins on this aspect are generally between 6% and 10%.
The modification of the odds
Nowadays it is much more common for betting sites to change their odds on more than one occasion between the publication of the event and its start. This situation strictly complies with the changes made by users. Given these movements, we understand that these companies need to be in balance between the different possibilities presented by an event.
Therefore, if many players are betting on a favorite with a share of 2 euros for every euro wagered, they will tend to decrease with the simple goal of compensating. In a sense, the bookmaker will try to convince their customers to invest so that the money played on each of the two or three alternatives (depending on the sport) is proportional.
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